What Is The Black Friday Surge? The Biggest FOMO-Fuelled Stress Test For Online Payments

The FOMO Economy

Black Friday isn’t just a shopping day, it’s an economic phenomenon driven by a fear of missing out on deals. Consumers camp online and in stores, chasing promotions with almost frenzy-level urgency. In 2024, an estimated 197 million Americans (nearly 60% of the U.S. population) shopped during the extended Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday period, which is a testament to how pervasive the Black Friday “FOMO” mindset has become. Shoppers plan weeks ahead, scouting discounts and many explicitly admit the psychological pull where more than 1 in 10 U.S. consumers say the “fear of missing out” on limited-time offers motivates their Black Friday shopping. This deal-centric mindset even influences purchasing habits year-round, about 34% of consumers concede they postpone essential purchases until big sale events like Black Friday, specifically to snag better prices. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle where the more people fear missing out, the more they participate and the bigger Black Friday grows each year.

What began decades ago as a post-Thanksgiving bargain hunt is now a global shopping ritual. Promotions start earlier each year and span more industries than ever. From major department stores to small online boutiques and even non-retail sectors like travel and gaming, everyone wants to capture consumers’ limited attention and budget. The psychology of Black Friday is rooted in scarcity and timing - a “now or never” proposition. By tapping into competitive instincts, Black Friday has effectively turned holiday shopping into a spectator sport. For consumers, the fear of missing a great deal can be as powerful as the desire for the product itself. And for businesses, this has translated into massive surges in transactions during an increasingly concentrated window. 

The Surge Effect: Quantifying Black Friday’s Transaction Boom

The numbers behind Black Friday underscore its staggering scale. In 2024, U.S. consumers spent a record $10.8 billion online in a single day on Black Friday, a jump of about 10% from the previous year’s $9.8 billion. It was the largest online spending day on record in the United States at that time, reflecting the unabated growth of the event. Globally, the impact is even larger: worldwide online Black Friday/Cyber Week sales in 2024 were estimated around $314.9 billion, up 6% year-over-year as the shopping tradition gains traction across Europe, Latin America and beyond. What these figures mean in human terms is tens of millions of transactions being carried out in the span of hours. NRF data cited on Demandsage shows that Black Friday 2024 saw about 87.3 million Americans shopping online and 81.7 million braving physical stores on that single day, a near-equal split that highlights how omnipresent the event has become across channels. To achieve such volumes, virtually every major retailer and e-commerce platform is involved.

This surge effect isn’t confined to the United States. Europe, South America and Asia have increasingly adopted Black Friday promotions, contributing to the growing global sales figure. In some countries, Black Friday has overtaken traditional local shopping holidays. Overall web traffic statistics gathered by Queue.it show e-commerce experiences double or triple their normal daily traction on Black Friday. Specifically, Black Friday 2024’s online traffic worldwide was about 2x a typical day’s volume.

For retailers and payment providers, this condensed boom in activity represents a stress test finding that systems must handle Black Friday’s “instant scale”, where a year’s worth of demand might be packed into a few days. Each year has brought a new record in sales, and 2025 is expected to continue the trend.

Analysis: E-commerce, Travel, iGaming

E-commerce (Retail): 

Unsurprisingly, online retail is the epicentre of Black Friday activity. E-commerce platforms and digital storefronts reap the majority of the spending surge as consumers flood websites for deals on electronics, apparel, home goods and more. Black Friday tends to be the peak transaction day for many retailers’ entire year. Categories such as electronics and toys see particularly dramatic jumps. During 2024’s Black Friday, online traffic to electronics retailers was so high that it accounted for about 60% of all e-commerce site visits globally that day, far above normal levels. Conversion rates also climb as shoppers are primed to buy - average online cart values often increase thanks to sitewide promotions. Another trend in retail e-commerce is the blending of online and offline, where practices like “Buy Online, Pick Up In Store” (BOPIS) remain popular during Black Friday, allowing customers to secure deals online and collect items the same day locally. Major chains from Walmart and Target to Amazon’s marketplace sellers all double down on Black Friday, resulting in an enormous variety of products on sale. The retail sector has turned Black Friday/Cyber Monday into a full “Cyber Week” of sustained promotions, some starting as early as mid-November.

Travel: 

In recent years, the travel and hospitality industry has jumped on the Black Friday bandwagon, seeing it as an opportunity to drive bookings during a shoulder season. Airlines, hotel chains, online travel agencies and cruise lines now widely advertise Black Friday and “Cyber Week” travel deals. This culminates in what’s branded as “Travel Tuesday” meaning the Tuesday after Cyber Monday, dedicated to travel discounts on flights, hotels and vacation packages. The impact has been significant. According to data from the travel marketing firm Sojern cited in mckinsey.com, Travel Tuesday 2023 saw U.S. airline and cruise bookings surge significantly compared to normal early-winter levels, as deal-seekers snapped up discounted fares and packages. 

The above indicates that many consumers now time their trip planning to coincide with post-Thanksgiving sales, a relatively new phenomenon. Airlines like JetBlue and Delta and European carriers such as easyJet have offered flash sales (e.g. 15% off flights or special $49 fare deals) during Black Friday weekend to stimulate demand. Hotel groups have similarly dangled steep discounts (50% off resort stays, added free nights, etc.) to entice travellers to book future vacations. The travel sector’s embrace of Black Friday is partly driven by timing where late November is traditionally a slow period for bookings (after summer and before late-December holidays), so injecting a sales event here helps fill the gap. And consumer behaviour shows pent-up demand. 

iGaming: 

A key sector feeding Black Friday’s ripple effect is iGaming. Online casinos, sports betting platforms and gaming marketplaces have noticed that the late-November deal season brings a surge in user activity. For online casinos and sportsbooks, Black Friday has become another occasion to offer promotions. For example, deposit match bonuses, free spins or bet credits are available only during Black Friday weekend, which in turn drives up engagement. Industry surveys indicate that player activity jumps around 30-35% during Black Friday weekend on many iGaming sites, as users take advantage of special offers and holiday free time to play more.

In affiliate marketing-driven corners of iGaming, traffic also spikes. Affiliate networks report around a 25% increase in iGaming traffic referrals on Black Friday, as comparison sites and streamers aggressively promote casino deals to audiences eager for a bargain. All of this translates to real revenue lift, by some accounts, online casinos see revenue spikes up to 40% higher on Black Friday compared to a normal week, especially when they launch limited-time jackpots or tournaments tied to the event. The sports betting side is also capitalising where Black Friday often coincides with major sports events (late-season NFL games, European soccer matches, etc.), so sportsbooks run Black Friday odds boosts or parlay specials. LegalBet Canada observed a growing crossover between retail holiday chatter and sports betting, noting a 94% surge in online discussions and searches about Black Friday betting bonuses in late 2023, as bettors looked for promotions to maximise their bankroll. In short, Black Friday’s climate of aggressive deals and high online engagement creates a fertile environment for iGaming companies to attract and retain users. 

The APM Acceleration

One notable trend turbocharged by Black Friday is the acceleration of alternative payment methods (APMs). With millions of customers rushing to checkout simultaneously, merchants have learnt that offering a broad range of fast, convenient payment options can make the difference between closing a sale or losing it. During Black Friday 2024, mobile and digital wallet payments dominated the scene where roughly 69-70% of all online Black Friday purchases were made via mobile devices, implying that tap-and-pay methods like Apple Pay, Google Pay and other e-wallets were heavily used. This share was up from about 68% mobile the year prior and forecasts say 2025 could see over 73% of Black Friday online sales on mobile as consumers continue shifting to phones as their primary shopping tool. The convenience of storing payment info in an app or digital wallet means shoppers can check out in seconds - crucial when hot deals might sell out quickly. Retailers that have optimised for one-click payments or biometric wallet payments tend to see higher conversion rates, especially among younger, mobile-first customers.

Mobile wallet usage jumped 16% globally during the holiday shopping week compared to the year before. The growth of APMs isn’t just a niche trend but is significantly reshaping the checkout process during peak commerce events. Consumers now expect frictionless payment experiences, by saving card info, using face/touch ID for authentication and having alternative currency options readily available. 

Black Friday acts as a proving ground for these payment innovations. The retailers that execute well (i.e., fast, flexible checkout with multiple APM choices) see tangible results in conversion rates and customer satisfaction. Those that don’t adapt, risk losing sales to the competition with a slicker payment experience. The lesson from Black Friday 2024 is clear: offer every payment method you feasibly can. From credit cards to cryptocurrencies, Apple Pay and local APMs, a robust APM lineup meets customers where they are and facilitates that no willing buyer is turned away at checkout due to payment friction.

Key Payment Infrastructure Challenges

Capacity and Uptime

As transaction volumes skyrocket on Black Friday, so do the challenges of keeping payment infrastructure running smoothly. The first major hurdle is pure capacity and uptime. During peak hours of Cyber Week, online storefronts and payment gateways face traffic loads that can be multiples of their usual levels. Even giant retailers have suffered high-profile crashes in past years. The cost of any downtime or slowdown on Black Friday is enormous, with industry analyses suggesting that if around 1,000 top e-commerce sites each experienced just one hour of downtime on Black Friday, the collective revenue loss could exceed $600 million in sales that never happen. Put simply, every minute of downtime means abandoned carts and frustrated customers. 

Fraud Management and Security

Another challenge amplified by Black Friday is fraud management and security. Where the money flows, fraud attempts follow. Online fraud rings often see Black Friday as an opportunity, attempting higher volumes of stolen card use, account takeovers or bot-based attacks amid the flurry of legitimate transactions (the hope is that merchants, in the rush, might miss suspicious patterns). Indeed, data indicates that online fraud losses spike by roughly 22% during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday period compared to baseline levels, as cybercriminals try to blend into the holiday shopping rush. 

Payment Processing Bottlenecks

The third systemic challenge is payment processing bottlenecks and failures. When vast numbers of transactions are in motion, any point of weakness in the payment chain, be it a slow credit card authorisation network or a downed payment gateway, can create a destructive domino effect. This risk is amplified because e-commerce merchants often rely too heavily on just a handful of Payment Service Providers (PSPs) to process all their credit card and alternative method transactions. If one PSP has an outage due to overload and there’s no fallback, every transaction through it grinds to a halt. Even high-availability systems can suffer “soft failures” under pressure, like dramatically slower response times that lead to customers timing out or double-clicking purchases. We also see higher rates of payment declines on Black Friday for non-fraud reasons, where credit card issuers might decline charges due to unusual spending patterns (lots of purchases in a short time can look suspicious), or consumers may hit their credit limits. Insufficient funds become more common as people splurge across multiple stores. Payment routing issues, for example, a specific bank’s servers timing out, can also crop up. Essentially, Black Friday will find any weak link in a retailer’s payment flow. For merchants, orchestrating payments effectively under these conditions is vital.

Cross-Border Shopping

Lastly, cross-border shopping adds complexity. Black Friday’s global reach means a shopper in one country might be buying from a merchant in another. If the site doesn’t support the customer’s local currency or preferred payment method, that’s a challenge. A UK consumer on a US site might abandon an order if they only see prices in dollars or can’t use their local debit network. At Black Friday scale, even a small percentage of international transaction friction can amount to millions in lost sales. In fact, a recent study by the paypers indicates that up to half of consumers in the US and UK would abandon their purchase if their preferred local payment method wasn’t available.

Merchants who manage these challenges well can turn the Black Friday rush into record revenue. The complexity of modern payment ecosystems, with many moving parts and integrations, makes this a non-trivial task. That’s why more merchants are looking to advanced technological solutions to help orchestrate and optimise payments during peak periods.

finera.’s Orchestration Capabilities

To overcome the challenges above, companies are increasingly deploying payment orchestration platforms, and finera. is one such solution built to keep commerce flowing smoothly even at Black Friday scale. At its core, a payment orchestration platform like finera. acts as a centralised hub that intelligently routes and manages transactions across multiple payment providers, methods and risk tools in real time. This provides merchants with resilience and flexibility that single-processor setups often lack.

One of finera.’s key capabilities is smart transaction routing across multiple acquirers and gateways. Rather than relying on one payment processor, merchants connected to finera. can process through a network of providers. If one gateway is slow or fails, finera. automatically switches to an alternate path within seconds, minimizing disruption for the customer. 

Those extra approvals represent millions in recovered revenue, simply by not giving up when one processor declines a valid purchase. finera.’s orchestration logic similarly optimises authorisations: it can be configured to send a transaction to the acquirer most likely to approve it based on factors like card type or issuer, all in seconds. This approach addresses the soft decline problem on Black Friday. 

finera. also excels at unified APM integration. Instead of a merchant individually integrating dozens of alternative payment methods (which is time-consuming and technically complex), finera. comes pre-connected to a plethora of payment types like cards and APMs. Through one API, a retailer can enable any mix of these options via finera.’s orchestration dashboard. This breadth of payment choice directly combats cart abandonment where customers are far less likely to drop off if they find their preferred way to pay. By offering multiple currencies and payment methods through a single orchestration layer, finera. enables a truly localised checkout experience for global Black Friday traffic.

Another vital feature is fraud management orchestration. finera. isn’t just a routing switch but can incorporate fraud prevention services and apply rules intelligently so that legitimate customers face minimal friction. For example, finera. can funnel transactions through 3D Secure biometric checks. During Black Friday, when fraud attempts peak, finera.’s approach allows merchants to dynamically adapt where high-risk transactions can be challenged or routed through additional verification, while low-risk ones sail through. This reduces those dreaded false declines. 

Scalability and reliability are also hallmarks of finera.’s orchestration. It’s built on infrastructure that automatically scales to handle massive spikes in transactions in seconds, meaning it’s engineered for maximum uptime even during Black Friday peaks. Load balancing across multiple payment routes not only speeds up processing (avoiding any single bottleneck) but also provides redundancy if any one partner has issues. Essentially, finera. abstracts the complexity of dealing with numerous payment providers, each of which might have its own performance quirks on Black Friday and provides a single unified layer designed to maximise transaction success rates and efficiency. 

In summary, finera.’s orchestration capabilities directly tackle the Black Friday payment challenges by keeping systems up through load distribution, minimising failed transactions through multi-path routing, maximising customer payment choice by aggregating methods and protecting against fraud in a smart, adaptive way. All of this happens behind the scenes, so the shopper experiences a fast, smooth checkout no matter how chaotic things are on the backend. For businesses, finera. provides peace of mind that when the crush of traffic hits, they have a robust, optimised payment workflow in place, one that can flex to conditions and maximise revenue capture. In the modern FOMO-fuelled economy, that kind of resilience and flexibility can be the differentiator between a record-breaking Black Friday and a painful one.

Black Friday 2025 Outlook

As we look toward Black Friday 2025, all signs point to an even bigger, more complex shopping extravaganza. Analysts are projecting yet another year of record sales: U.S. online Black Friday revenue is forecast in the $12 billion-plus range (potentially 8-15% higher than 2024’s record), and global online spending could approach $80-82 billion. If those numbers hold, it means Black Friday 2025 will once again set new benchmarks for volume. 

In conclusion, Black Friday has evolved from a single day of doorbuster deals into a complex, tech-driven global shopping carnival. The “FOMO economy” surrounding it shows no sign of fading. If anything, digital connectivity has amplified consumers’ fear of missing out, as they are bombarded with flash sale alerts and social media ads for Black Friday specials. 

For 2025, we can confidently expect new records in transaction volumes and participation. Retailers and service providers who invest in robust payment infrastructure, embrace diverse payment methods and leverage orchestration platforms like finera. will be best positioned to capitalise on the frenzy. They’ll be able to deliver the kind of fast, secure and flexible checkout experience that today’s deal-hunters expect. Black Friday 2025 will be a test of endurance and agility for the industry but also an opportunity to delight millions of customers and finish the year strong.